Once Sri Lanka had demonstrated their usual excellence in the field with the two senior pros – Vaas and Muralitharan producing 6/65 between them in their 20 overs, for New Zealand to win, they were always going to have to convert everything that came their way. As it happened there were three difficult chances grassed in the first 11 overs, in addition to one being held. With Jayasurya firing, Sri Lanka ran out easy winners.
4.1 Franklin to Tharanga, no run, dropped by Fleming. Fullish, outside off stump line, Tharanga drives square, uppishly and Fleming, who had placed himself at square point, stretches his left hand out but ends up palming it.
7.6 Bond to Sangakkara, 2 runs, dropped by McMillan at short midwicket, slower ball that time and Sangakkara is deceived. Pokes at it but McMillan can only get his fingers to it, jumping up at short midwicket and lunging his right hand up towards the ball. Tough chance but a chance nevertheless
10.4 Gillespie to Jayasuriya, 1 run, smacked loft over short midwicket, Fleming throws himself in the air but can only parry it with his left hand. Dropped might be too harsh but these are the chances that turn games.
Sanath Jayasurya is one of the most peculiar ODI batsmen ever. He averages merely 33, but when he does make runs, Sri Lanka’s chances of winning skyrocket. As it is, he has played in an extremely successful Sri Lankan ODI side, especially as opener. Jayasurya has played 332 matches (328 innings) as opener. In these, Sri Lanka have won 183, lost 135 – a 55% win record. He has reached at least 40 in 108 out of these 328 innings. In these 108 games, Sri Lanka’s win-loss record is 79-23 – a 73% win record. When Jayasurya matches alteast a half-century, Sri Lanka’s win-loss ratio is 63-18 in 86 games, a 73% success rate.
How crucial is Jayasurya to Sri Lanka’s success? When Jayasurya is dismissed for less than 20 (i. e. a batting failure), something which has happened in 150 out of his 332 games, Sri Lanka’s record plummets to 65-77, i. e. 43%
If you compare 5 top ODI players, Tendulkar (opening), Ponting, Lara, Inzamam, Gilchrist and Jayasurya and the impact which their success (>40) and failure (<20) has on the team performance, it makes for very interesting reading.
Jayasurya, Gilchrist and Tendulkar have been measured as openers, while Inzamam, Lara and Ponting have been measured as middle order batsman. Lara and Tendulkar’s failures seem to hurt their teams the most, while Lara’s bat wields the maximum influence on the outcome of a game (38 percentage points).
Individual performers do have an impact on the result of games, however, it is instructive to note that both Tendulkar and Jayasurya have equal influence (30 percentage points), but Tendulkar has to average 48 to wield that influence while Jayasurya has to average 36 to wield the same influence. Since both players have comparable strike rate (85 – 90), it indicates the contributions of the rest of the side in their respective cases. Sri Lanka have almost consistently been the superior fielding and bowling unit, while their batting has had superior over all depth to India, except stray periods during the early years of this decade.
Lara’s numbers are interesting – if you consider just this decade, then Lara has played 124 innings, averaged 38.60 and in these games, the West Indies have had a 40% win rate. When Lara fails (he does so in 44% of all innings in this decade), the West Indies win rate drops to 30%, while when he succeeds, the West Indies win 25 out of 41 i. e. 61% of their games. Lara’s influence falls from 38 to 31%, which is still significant.
While it is tempting to view certain players as match winners more than others, the evidence suggests that the the influence of individual players is a function of the overall strength of the teams that they play in, more than anything else. Players in stronger teams have a lesser individual impact on that teams overall success rate (something which is obvious). Yet, the converse, does not always reflect in the win percentage. Individual batsmen tend to be very influential in teams with strong bowling attacks and moderate batting strength, while individual bowlers tend to be extremely influential in teams with strong batting line ups and moderate bowling line ups. Lets take Murali’s case for example:
Murali has taken 447 wickets at 22.7 in his ODI career. Sri Lanka have a 168-107 record in the 287 games that he has played for them – a 59% win rate. In matches where he takes 3 or more wickets, Sri Lanka’s win record is 42-16 in 58 matches – a 72% record. In matches where he is restricted to at best 1 wickets, Sri Lanka’s record is 80-73 in 163 matches – a 49% win rate. If we restrict this to this decade, where Murali has the superior individual record – 259 wickets at 19.72, and Sri Lanka’s overall win rate is 62% in these games, then the same success and failure measures for Murali yield:
27-12 record in 39 games where Murali takes 3 or more wickets, i.e a 69% win rate
45-35 record in 86 games where Murali is restricted to at best 1 wicket – i. e a 52% win rate.
In Murali’s entire career, the influence of his taking 3 or more wickets in an innings as against his being restricted to just 1 wicket at best, has been 23%. While in the 2000’s, when he has been at his peak as a bowler, this influence comes down to 17%! So Murali becoming a better bowler has benefited Sri Lanka less than the fact that Sri Lanka have improved as a team – and we are talking about the world’s greatest all wicket ODI spin bowler here.
It is a combination of successes which ensures victory, and for Sri Lanka, Vaas and Murali taking 6/56 and Jayasuriya making 64, is as close to their A performance as you could imagine. They would rarely lose when that happens – against anybody.
Their win percentage is a tribute to the quality they possess in both batting and bowling. That is the difference between India and Sri Lanka – just think about it – line up Rahul Dravid and Sourav Ganguly and Yuvraj Singh besides the mighty Tendulkar, in in this whole decade, India have managed a win percentage which is about 6 percentage points behind Sri Lanka’. Our A game, consists of big batting and steady bowling – which is why we tend to win batting v batting shoot outs, where the bowlers are basically little more than cannon fodder. In the lower scoring games, Murali and Vaas come to play…. and thats where Sri Lanka score.
Sri Lanka have produced their text book performance at the right time. Australia should take notice….. As for New Zealand, John Wright did say that their real test would start with this game – and they have faltered. I wouldn’t write them off yet. They in a position where 2 good games would make them world champions!
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