Finals Week at the World Cup….

New Zealand v Sri Lanka, April 24, Sabina Park, Kingston, Jamaica
Australia v South Africa, April 25, Beausejour Stadium, St. Lucia
World Cup Final, April 28, Kensington Oval, Bridgetown Barbados

This is what it all comes down to six weeks into the World Cup. All the upsets, all the one sided games and all the minnow bashing later, the four best teams in the World at the moment meet in the final knock out phase. This World Cup could yet see a revival in fortunes.

The mind games have already begun. Shane Bond is aiming for Sanath Jayasurya, New Zealand aim to exploit the extra bounce on offer on Michael Holding’s home pitch, and the Australians want everyone to believe they are all over the South Africans like a rash. Matthew Hayden believes his team intimidates the South Africans, while Ricky Ponting aims to get the “slow” Jacques Kallis in early. Some Australian fans believe there is a thin line between confidence and hubris which has already been crossed. Others think that come Sunday morning, Australia will be World Champions irrespective of what anybody says.

That none of these sides can consider it an achievement to have reached the World Cup semi finals is a telling comment on the state of World Cricket. Would India have felt they had achieved anything significant by qualifying for the last 4? Qualification for the semi-finals is akin to making the pass grade in the world cup. The teams that didn’t qualify “failed” in a sense.

These two matches have already taken place once in this World Cup – Australia and New Zealand emerged winners on those occasions. With all the history associated with Australia v South Africa contests, only a brave man would pick a winner. The Australians go in as favorites of course, but then again, how much meaning does that have anymore? Have they gone into any contest in the last 8-9 years as anything less than firm favorites? The South Africans have a reputation for choking in big games – an uncharitable accusation in my view, especially given their sterling world record run chase in a must win game against the Australians last year. Im must confess here that i find myself squarely in the South African corner for this game. The man to watch out for – Makhaya Ntini. That the World Cup Semifinal is going to be a repeat of the Group game on March 24th, at the same venue as the group game is in itself interesting. If it ends up being a batting v batting shoot out, then given the pressure of the occasion, one would expect the side batting first to have the advantage. Why? Because, as the South Africans showed against the West Indies, the side batting first, with wickets in hand can hammer almost any amount of runs in the last 10 overs of their innings – such as making 152 in the last 11 overs like the South Africans did against West Indies. Chasing down 152 in the last 11 overs, even with wickets in hand, is that much more difficult. The Australia had the advantage of batting first the last time.

In the other semi-final (thats exactly what it is…… the “other” semi-final), the battle is between the classical orthodoxy of the New Zealand attack and the unorthodox variety of the Sri Lankan attack. Scott Styris seems to play spin bowling the best amongst all the New Zealand batsmen, while Kumar Sangakkara is Sri Lanka’s best player on quicker tracks. In 1999, New Zealand were demolished in the semi-final by the elegant blade of Saeed Anwar. Kumar Sangakkara has had a quiet World Cup so far, and with the spotlight squarely upon Jayasuriya and the Sri Lankan Captain, Sangakkara and his left handed compatriot Russell Arnold will play an important role – especially against Daniel Vettori who is in the form of his life in One Day Cricket. For New Zealand, they will hope that Stephen Fleming produces one of his specials – like he did against the South Africans in the 2003 edition. Ross Taylor and Peter Fulton will be tested in the big game, while Craig McMillan may just be the joker in the pack for New Zealand. Chamara Silva demolished New Zealand in the Test match earlier this year, but a World Cup semi-final will test his mettle.

Unless New Zealand under perform with the bat if they bat first, i don’t see Sri Lanka chasing too well. New Zealand on the other hand possess the versatility and depth in batting to win chasing as well as batting first. Hence, i would have to put New Zealand as slight favorites in the first semi-final.

In the second one, Australia go in as favorites, but if a Australia – South Africa world cup semi-final does not produce drama, then we will know for sure than the 2007 World Cup is well and truly jinxed.

Its hard to resist making predictions for these games. So let me go ahead and make mine for this great week…..

1. New Zealand beat Sri Lanka in a tense run chase after winning the toss and fielding first.

I’ll make a prediction about the Australia v SA game tomorrow.

For now, it will be Shane Bond taking the field on the holy Sabina Park turf which once belonged to the mighty West Indian pace quartet.