Batting costs India the series…..

The record shows that Indias batsmen do not struggle in overseas conditions. Peculiarly enough, this was actually borne out in this series. The two Indian batting failures which lead to Indian Test defeats in this series came on 4th or 5th day wickets. It is largely a commentary on the poor form of the Indian batting that they have struggled on 4th and 5th day wickets. Form batting line ups have at least one or two batsmen who are able to weather the vagaries of unreliable, wearing wickets.

Congratulations to South Africa for their come from behind victory. What this series has shown is that even though South Africa are definitely in decline, especially when it comes to the quality of their batting, the presence of Shaun Pollock and Mark Boucher as players who can deliver late order runs, offers their Test team enough of a run cushion. South African line ups of yore (with Kirsten, Cullinan, Kallis, Smith, Gibbs, Rhodes) would not have folded for 84 at Johannesburg and would definitely have out batted this Indian line up. Pakistan have a real chance of winning in South Africa, especially if Younis and Yousuf can keep up their batting form and if Inzamam can shrug of his dislike for playing in South Africa and pitch in with some runs. With Asif and Gul, they are at least as good, if not better than Sreesanth and Zaheer, and in Razzaq and Rana they have superior back up bowling as well.

What went wrong with Indias batting then? I think the answer lies in the personnel more than anything else. Sachin Tendulkar is at a stage of his career where his injuries do not allow him to play anything other than the most important matches – matches for India. At this stage, he is batting from memory and not really doing a very good job of it. Slow Left Arm, over the wicket into the rough can now be officially classed as the one type of bowling which the man hates and is unable to deal with. With the lack of matchplay inherent in his schedule (he will not play Ranji Trophy, Duleep Trophy, County Cricket, Shield Cricket or any other such thing), coupled with his natural decline with age, make him, in terms of preperation and ability a lesser batsman. This is shown up in his performance. India get themselves not a 55 batting average world class batsman, but a 40 batting average test quality player. The same is the case with VVS Laxman. He is a 43-44 average player to start with, and with age, he is equally in decline. Ganguly, looks good right now, because given where he was a year ago, it would have been impossible for him to look bad. Add to that the fact, that the two most crucial Indian Test batsman in the last 2-3 years – Sehwag and Dravid, in 12 innings between them, made as many runs as Sourav Ganguly, and you have the makings of a batting debacle. Wasim Jaffer will eventually develop into an opener as good as Siddhu at best. He is not going to average 50 in Test cricket.

Zaheer Khan, inspite of the “good” series he is supposed to have had, on wickets which were bowler friendly for the most part, did not get a 5 wicket haul, and averaged 30.38 with the ball, and went for 3.38 runs per over against a South African side which didn’t have too many free scoring batsmen. Anil Kumble was a good as ever. The big find of this Test series was Sreesanth. When Munaf is fully fit, i would still select him ahead of Zaheer on current showing, because this is about as good as Zaheer Khan is going to be – at best a low 30’s average fast bowler, and you can look through history to see how many of those have ever won anything worthwhile.

I did say sometime back that the selection of Ganguly and Laxman to the ODI side and that of Ganguly to the Test side was a step backwards, and so it has proved. The point is simple. We know very well what Ganguly and Laxman can do. If India want to be a really top quality Test team, then they need to be able to play Ganguly as the spare batsman, not as a first team regular. In another year or so, Laxman is going to reach the same stage. The current selection committee probably had little choice other than to revert back to the old hands given the poor form India were in, but the omission of Mohammad Kaif from the Test team was baffling, given the runs he scored against England (a better attack than the South African one) and in the West Indies. Kaif also has proven match temperament.

I would still consider this series to have been riddled with a little bit of poor luck for India. Dravid being umpired out twice at Durban probably made a bit of a difference to the outcome of the match. Tendulkar being umpired out yesterday probably made a difference as well, because had Tendulkar been there at Tea time, then the post tea session would have been viewed differently by the South Africans.

At least the story is different this time around, and India won a Test match in SA for the first time, and found a genuinely good new ball bowler. The batting however has come away with fewer plaudits than in previous series. The only question about selection is the omission of Mohammad Kaif. Questions about selection for future series are aplenty. What of Sehwag? What of Zaheer Khan? What of VRV Singh? With the return of Sourav Ganguly, what happens to Yuvraj Singh? What of Sehwag’s position in the middle order? At this stage, Sehwag looks like the ideal number 6 batsman who can also score quickly with the tail. He has probably been sorted out as opener by now.

All in all, this series has been a good one for India, because it has thrown up some good questions and should inform future selection, because it has basically exposed how good this team really is.

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India commit suicide…….. almost…..

Rahul Dravid and Sachin Tendulkar showed their old penchant for getting stuck and being unable to score runs. Add VVS Laxman’s run out and Sehwag’s failure to the mix, and you have self-inflicted wound writ large on the scene. Even so, i say “almost” because South Africa are chasing 200+. Its the sort of score which requires one century stand in order to be successfully chased. With Jacques Kallis due in next, the first hour tomorrow morning, assumes great importance.

The batting has been below par consistently this series, and the only comfort is, that the South African’s themselves have not done much better. All though, the fact that they do bat deeper will surely help them in this run chase.

India are about 40 runs short, they should have managed 200 in the third innings. Now they will require something special from their bowling. South Africa don’t have this sewn up quite yet.

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India have the advantage…

A lead of 41 in a 400 run first innings may not sound much. In the context of this match however, it is significant. With 6 sessions left to play, and with about 265 runs being scored on each day of this test match (254, 304 and 229), a lead of 41 put India half a session ahead. It is likely that this match may end up being a draw, but i do think that right now, unless India commit suicide in the third innings, the most likely results are an Indian win, a draw and then a South Africa win.

With a 41 run lead, India can play normally till the drinks break in the second session and then push the scoring along, by which time the ball will be old, and they will get at least 30 overs of the old ball against which to score. Leaving Sehwag down at number 7 would be excellent in this scenario. Sehwag could easily make 50-60 in an hour of play, and turn a 200 run lead at tea time in 280-290 very quickly. Conversely, with the softer, older ball being difficult to score off, coupled with the threat of reverse swing, it may make sense for India to revert to Sehwag and Jaffer opening the batting. This leaves a fairly long tail, starting with Anil Kumble at number 8.

These last two days will be a great test of Rahul Dravid’s captaincy. Dravid has consistency shown himself to be a far more aggressive captain that any of his predecessors. He is also due for a score in this series. Tomorrow might just be the day where he makes a few important runs. It is time some good luck came his way, after being shot out to poor decisions twice at Durban. I do think that Virendra Sehwag will open the batting tomorrow.

As i have pointed out before, most successful 4th innings run chases are formalities. South Africa must seek to end the contest tomorrow. If it goes into a 5th day with all 3 results realistically possible, then India are almost certain to come away from South Africa with a series victory or at least a 1-1 draw. By tea time tomorrow, we will know which it is to be.

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Classic Shane Warne…….

Sledging gold from Shane Warne as he hammered England to all corners of the SCG in his final Test…. Paul Collingwood got testy and began to let Warne in on his honest opinion about things, to which Warne, amongst other things told him “You got an MBE for making 7 at the Oval in 2005”!!!

Just a glimpse into the great competitiveness of Shane Warne, also a not so subtle glimpse into the depth of feeling in the Aussie camp about this Ashes series. England have well and truly been shown their place, and as an unbiased observer, id contend that England, if you think about it are actually a very good Test team – clearly the second best in the world.

Australia though, are probably the greatest side in history in this Test match. I think they have had their strongest pace combination since that short period in 2000, when Gillespie was in his prime and Brett Lee was frightening batsmen and getting plenty of wickets early in his Test career. They have their strongest batting line up, with the emergence of Michael Hussey and Michael Clarke.

But its not just the personnel. Warne’s comment is a classic illustration of the reasons for their unrelenting success. Ricky Ponting, inspite of his Ashes loss, is the most successful Australian captain ever in terms of win percentages for any captain who captained Australia in more than 30 Tests. His 26-3 record in 34 Tests a captain is better than Waugh (41-9 in 57 Tests), Bradman (15-3 in 24), Benaud (12-4 in 28), Lindsay Hassett (14-4 in 24), Mark Taylor (26-13 in 50), Greg Chappell (21-13 in 48) or Ian Chappell (15-5 in 30). Only India and England have beaten Ponting’s Australians in a Test match, and only England have won a series. Warwick Armstrong (8-0 in 10 Tests) does have a superior record but he captained Australia in the years immediatly after the first world war when English opposition was depleted. So, the Ponting era is actually one up on the Steve Waugh era, inspite of the fact the Ponting has captained a side which has actually lost important players such as Jason Gillespie, something which Steve Waugh never had to encounter.

In my view, it is essentially down to everything embodied in that smart remark by the greatest leg-spinner in Test history to an average English middle order batsman, in Warne’s final Test, with the series won and superiority well and truly established. One would think that machine like relentlessness would not be human. Looking at Warne and Australia, it is easy to envision a ruthless juggernaut, more so than it has ever been possible to do so.

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South African can still win this Test…. but is that a better position for India to be in?

Given the nature of Test cricket, with batting becoming more and more difficult as the match progresses, it is unusual for sides to chase totals in the 4th innings and win. In contests between evenly matched sides, in most instances (barring unusually excellent individual efforts), it is invariably the side batting 4th which has a distinct disadvantage. It takes a sustained effort over 5 days and 3 innings for the impregnable lead to be established (South Africa at Durban, India at Johannesburg and numerous other Tests). Winning Test matches chasing runs in the 4th innings is the one of the rarest ways in which Test matches are won (Innings victories are probably rarer), unless the game has been effectively won before the 4th innings begins. The vast majority of successful 4th innings run chases are low target formalities. The table below strongly supports this claim.

With evenly matched sides, it is often conditions or the toss which decide the outcome. What this series has shown so far, is that India and South Africa are evenly matched sides. Given the current match situation, both India and South Africa would find examples of these situations being turned into winning positions in the recent past. India beat Pakistan at Kolkata in 2005 after making 400+ and watching Pakistan reach 270 odd for 2 at the end of the second day. South Africa were on the recieving end at the Oval in 2003, where England responded to a big South African 1st innings with 600+ and went on to win by chasing a small target on the 4th innings.

The general consensus is that Anil Kumble will be the big factor in this game. However, i just wonder whether an even bigger factor, will be Indias bowling combination – 3 and 1 with Munaf returning from injury, instead of 2-2 with Harbhajan and Kumble bowling on this pitch. If South Africa are still batting at the end of day 3, then in all likely hood, India will not win this series. If India are already batting by the end of day 3, then they have every chance of winning this series. India need a 5 wicket session tomorrow, preferably one of the first 2 sessions of the day. Only then will they have effectively offset the 5/19 collapse, which saw them slump from 5/395 to 414 all out.

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Cape Town Test Day 1

Having lost the Durban Test, India went into the Cape Town test with the express aim of winning this series. There was no long term view taken, and no “investment” selections made. Mahendra Singh Dhoni was out injured, and moving Sehwag down to number 6 (or 7 as it may turn out) was a decision which was crucial to breaking the pattern in this series, where Sehwag has proved to be an easy wicket for the South African slip cordon. Dinesh Karthick is by no means the first choice wicketkeeper, and he is by no means the first choice opener.

This kind of thing has historically been successful for India. With makeshift performers rising to the occasion. Nayan Mongia made 152 vs Australia on a difficult Delhi wicket as makeshift Test opener to set up an Indian win in Tendulkar’s first test as Indian captain. Deep Dasgupta made a crucial half century in the second innings at Port Elizabeth during India’s last tour to South Africa, to ensure that India saved the infamous Denness Test. Sanjay Bangar made a crucial half century in the first innings at Headingley in 2002, to set up the Indian innings victory. Now Dinesh Karthick has delivered as makeshift opener and the Indians have built a cautious platform on Day 1 from which they can launch an imposing 1st innings total, which will hopefully take a South African series victory out of the equation by the end of Day 3, if not at the end of Day 2. That realization will play a significant role in the South African effort in this Test match.

I don’t want to put the wood on Sachin Tendulkar, but his batting average has dropped below 55 for the first time since November 1999. Most of the work on the second day will hopefully come from the Tendulkar blade. India must reach a position, where Sehwag and Ganguly can wield aggressive willow and drive up the run rate to 3.5 runs/over by the end of the innings. 400 all out from 254/3 overnight will be a disappointment and will also leave the door open for South Africa.

I am of the opinion that it is better to make 500 all out by tea on Day 2, than it is to make 600 all out while batting into the third day. However, in this particular case, there is a larger issue at stake – and that is about the quality of the South African Test team. A lot of Indias success has been down to the fact that the South African batting they have faced has not been quite as deep as the the South African batting line ups of yore. This South African summer with India having won a Test match, and with Pakistan poised to tour with a strong bowling line up, may just show up the South African weakness for what it is. Up until now, the South Africans have beaten every visitor to their shores, England and Australia excepted. This summer, that is under serious threat for the first time since South Africa’s return to Test cricket. With this in mind, i would think that there would be significant value in India achieving a total (if they are good enough to do so of course) which would effective eliminate the chance of a South African win.

The first two Test Matches in this series have gone with the side batting first, simply because that is how Test Matches on bowler friendly wickets usually go. They reveal if anything that the two sides are evenly matches, even in South African conditions. If this wicket does turn, then India may rue the fact that they have gone in with 3 pace bowlers. What this also reveals is that South Africa have realised the folly of playing India on “seaming” wickets.

All in all, a good first day, but still very much a work in progress……

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