Chittagong Test Review….

The Chittagong Test ended in a draw, only 219 overs of play was possible out of a possible 540 overs. India went into the Test with nothing to gain and everything to lose. A fight put on by Bangladesh would have reflected poorly on India and the Indian captain’s tactical acumen. The perception that this was somehow a “win or else…. ” series for India, in the immediate aftermath of the World Cup is hard to dismiss.

Add to that, we had an already rookie (albeit promising – Munaf and Sreesanth are good bowlers) Test bowling attack further depleted – first by injuries to Sreesanth and Munaf, and later by illness to Anil Kumble during the match – which a prescient Team management had accounted for by picking 5 bowlers. If you look further at the Indian side, it might have been hard to determine whether it was India or Bangladesh who were the minnows. A makeshift opening combination – where the specialist opener got a pair, a pace attack where the established first team bowler bowled rubbish and one of the fill in bowlers bowled superbly. It would be safe to say that the Test squad was in disarray – thanks to selection, injuries and form and a traditionally weak pace attack.

And yet, India were able to declare twice in the game – which just goes to show what a mismatch it was against an upstart opponent. Bangladesh are at a peculiar stage in their development. They have seen glimpses of what their future can be and stray elements of their team – like Mortaza and the impressive Shakibul Hassan promise a great deal. Yet, on the other hand, they are on the whole a very weak side and the self-belief/arrogance on display from the likes of Mohammad Ashraful (an under performing disaster if there ever was one) means that they are currently sprawled across the chasm between the wannabe Test team and the actual Test teams. The young Shahadat Hossain seems to have the ability and the attitude worthy of a pace bowler, and indeed in this game, new ball bowling was the one area where Bangladesh might have infact enjoyed an edge over India. Of course, this was masked, and masked effectively, because Mortaza and Shahadat came up against Tendulkar and co., while the Indian pace attack was able to scalp Habibul Bashar and Mohammad Ashraful and co. The contest is hard to describe, because it is hard to identify in the first place. The Indian batting seemed to play within itself, and the team selection betrayed a patched up Test team (that was a job well done).

In terms of the numbers – Tendulkar and Ganguly helped themselves to runs, and in Tendulkar’s batting one sensed a little bit of the certainty which has been apparent since the overseas leg of the 2006-07 season began in South Africa. He is such a superb player – a master – that it is hard not to sit up wondering what he might achieve in England later this year. Hopefully, the flurry of injuries are a thing of the past – the vice-captaincy should help him get back that edge which seemed to be missing in his play. He is now clearly one of the elder statesmen in the game and his demeanor on the field betrays it. Ganguly made runs, but if you watched those last 20 runs that he made on the third day against Shahadat and Mashrafe, full of desperate pull shots and bobbing and weaving….. culminating in that involuntary 100th run, before he was dismissed trying to pull – it is hard not to wonder he might just be the tonic Steve Harmison needs to return back to his best form. I can’t see England trying to dismiss him outside the off stump. It is easy to picture the field – 2 slips, gully, cover point, a cover (squarish), a short leg, a backward short leg, a squarish mid-wicket and a fine-leg placed for the skied hook/pull. There will be no mid-on and no mid-off, because there will be little in Ganguly’s good length area. With Ganguly’s inability to push a single to save himself, he will have to wear a lot of the bowling to score any significant runs. But, with his runs in SA and now the Chittagong hundred, he can’t be dropped and he has no choice but to face the music. What Ganguly can look forward to in England is Monty Panesar and the expectation that spin will come to the fore more than usual in the late summer this year. Dinesh Karthik will open the batting for India at Lord’s. He is being persisted with, and he has done enough to merit atleast 3-4 more Test matches.

Mashrafe bin Mortaza would walk into any Test team in the World bar Australia and a full strength England. Thats how good he is – he looks like he was born to be a sportsman and has a terrific ability to think things through as was evident during his expert handling of Ramesh Powar’s teasing offbreaks. It was not until Tendulkar came along and he and his partner couldn’t read the googlies that one felt he looked vulnerable. The wicketkeeper Mashud has a disastrous come back and i wonder why Mushfiqur Rahim is still sitting on the sidelines in the Test team. Ashraful is the most talented batsman in Bangladesh and has the skill to go with his talent but somehow you don’t feel that he will make too many runs consistently – the occasional great innings – sure. Habibul Bashar is going to retire after this series and Bangladesh will have a new team management, what with Whatmore retiring as well. Bashar and Whatmore have been good for Bangladesh and hopefully the next management will complete their journey into to league of the top Test playing teams in the world.

For now though, the current Bangladesh squad have one more Test to play against the current Indian squad.

And intriguing final day…. rain permitting….

Rain has already played spoilsport at Lords – not that the English bowling achieved anything significant in the 22 overs of play in the 4th innings – it hard to say that the rain saved the West Indies, with them at a healthy 0/89 when play ended.

The Chittagong Test has been set up intriguingly. Of the 540 overs of play possible in a Test, only 180 have been played yet, India are 193 ahead and if a full days play is possible on day 5 (98 overs), then i can see India batting for another 25 and leaving Bangladesh 70 overs to survive. It might have been even better for India at the end of 180 overs, but for the brilliance of Mashrafe bin Mortaza. His batting average might suggest that he is of modest means as a batsman, but he played with the maturity of a Miandad as he picked his spots and rode his luck. His Bangladeshi batting line up had played poorly up front at at 8/149 it looked like Bangladesh would follow on. Mortaza dragged Bangladesh past the follow on target of 187 (more about that later) and the momentum of that effort carried them 50 runs past 187 on a fast scoring ground. India tried to buy him out with Ramesh Powar for about 6 overs, before turning to Sachin Tendulkar. 9 times out of 10 Powar might have bought him out, but yesterday was Mortaza’s day. He used his ability to clear the ropes judiciously.

Bringing on Tendulkar was excellent captaincy, especially once it was established that the great man had the landing permission that he sought. He bowled superbly and nobody picked his googlies. Later in the day he was back with the bat after Rahul Dravid had been scalped brilliantly by a flying Rajin Saleh.

All in all, a fine days cricket. Rahul Dravid was right to bat on in the morning – his hope clearly was that 4-5 overs of Dhoni would mean 30 additional runs, which would have pushed the follow on target past 200. The follow on target remaining at Score – 200 puzzled me. My understanding was that if a full day has been lost, then the Test is treated as a 4 day game, and the follow on score is Score – 150 in such an instance. May be this is something that has to be agreed upon in the playing conditions prior to the series.

The Dhoni gamble didn’t work and Dravid seemed uninterested in letting the world witness the batting prowess of VRV and RP….. that is a sight best reserved for more desperate times. Mortaza and to some extent Saleh apart, the Bangladesh batting let themselves down. India caught with aplomb and Dinesh Karthik demonstrated that his wicketkeeping skills might just come in very handy at gully.

In the final analysis though, it was Mortaza’s day……

Two Test Matches….. the return of the cricketing contest….

The Test Match season has begun in earnest after a brief post-World Cup lull. India are playing Bangladesh, while England are playing the West Indies. Given England’s recent Home record and given Bangladesh’s status as Test Cricket minnows, it would seem that these games are not likely to produce the most heart stopping contests. Yet, in the first two days of play, we have seen almost everything – including the classic “Rain Stops Play” line.

An Englishman made a Test hundred on debut at Lord’s – becoming only the fifth player to do so. Interestingly, other two current players to have done so, feature in the ongoing Test Matches. Sourav Ganguly reeled off a century, continuing his good Test Match form from South Africa and Andrew Strauss is Captain of England. In a significant development, especially from India’s point of view, Monty Panesar is proving to be the most effective English bowler in a Lord’s Test in May – having taken 4 out of 6 wickets to fall. Whats even more interesting is that out of the 89 overs in the West Indies first innings, Panesar has bowled 29 for his 4 wickets, while the other pacemen – amongst them Harmison and Hoggard have bowled 60 for 2 wickets – one of those being scalped by Paul Collingwood. Harbhajan Singh’s fate and form become more and more critical by the day. It is also interesting to see India’s 5 bowler strategy in this context. Ganguly becomes a vital cog in the wheel if only 4 bowlers are to be played with two of these being spinners.

The Chittagong and Lord’s Tests seem to be heading towards a draw, what with Chanderpaul and the exciting Dinesh Ramdin continuing the fightback inspired by Dwayne Bravo’s swashbuckling counterattack. This is a glimpse into the new West Indies – Dinesh Ramdin and Dwayne Bravo – two of their most promising youngsters giving a fine account of themselves with the reliable Chanderpaul occupying the other end. Hopefully at some stage during this series Jerome Taylor and Darren Powell will breakthrough similarly. A competitive series in England will enable Sarwan to establish himself as West Indies captain – and build a new West Indian side – one different from the usual caricature of powerful batting and fearsome pace.

India have similar problems and similar opportunities in England this year – but it is the fast bowling which needs to make a name for itself in England this year. Test Cricket is a far more complete arena than One Day Cricket for individual cricketers to express themselves. Take the three half centuries – by Chanderpaul, Ramdin and Bravo for example – a fine example of team play, with each individual playing a distinctive role – Chanderpaul playing the classic batsman’s innings, wearing down the bowling to enable Bravo and Ramdin to demonstrate their youthful strokeplay at the other end. On another day, you might see the Chanderpaul pull out his array of strokes, like he did once on his home ground.

This is possible in Test Cricket because it is a contest between bat and ball. Tendulkar and Ganguly’s runs yesterday were made in contrasting styles. Ganguly’s was built on expansive strokes and boundary hits (13 fours and 2 sixes – 64 run in boundary hits), while Tendulkar’s was apparently more sedate (9 four – 36 runs in boundary hits). Yet, both ended with identical strike rates. It is a glimpse into the new Tendulkar. I don’t mean this in the hackneyed sense – and i don’t mean it simply because it worked. I am endlessly fascinated by how top batsmen build their innings and how their method of building an innings evolves over the years. Most commentary usually brackets batsmen into “dominating” and “gritty” (broadly speaking, i am not for a moment suggesting a lack of nuance amongst commentators ). Batsmen who “dominate” are super talented, near geniuses (Lara, Tendulkar, Ponting), while “gritty” batsmen are less gifted, “making the most of their talent” (Dravid, Steve Waugh, Chanderpaul). This classification is false in my view, because it seeks to place cricketers into straitjackets which Cricket as a sport does not yield to too happily.

In my view most (if not all batsmen) attempt to build an innings in a test match. How that innings gets built depends on many many factors – the match situation, the nature of the wicket, the strategy of the fielding side, the quality of the bowling, the batsman’s own form… watching an innings being built is as fascinating as watching a great contest between a batsman and a bowler or a batsman and a strategy designed to counter him. Like fast bowling, speed is relative. You could have a fast bowler busting his gut, hurling thunderbolts at 95 miles an hour, and find that the batsmen are playing him easily, because they are “watching” the ball really well, while at the other end you could have a more sedate medium-fast bowler who is troubling the very same batsmen. Similarly, you could have batsmen scoring at a run a ball and find it extremely boring (the middle overs of a One Day game), but later, find a batsman playing watchfully, seeing off a good spell by a bowler and find it gripping. The suggestion that Waugh and Dravid are someone ordinary players who have made it big thanks to some superhuman effort is a bit far fetched – it is as far fetched as saying that Tendulkar or Lara are so gifted that they could not help but be great batsmen. There is a method to every one of these players, and it is that method which Test Cricket tests.

Test Cricket reminds of a great story i heard once. A wise man was once asked “How is the earth supported in space?” He replied “A tortoise sits below and holds it up”. The next question came quickly – “Who supports the tortoise?”. The reply – “Another tortoise sits below the first one and supports both the first tortoise and the earth”. This went on, and all that the questioner got in response was tortoises.. finally he asked “But what lies at the bottom?”, to which the wise man replied – “Oh… its tortoises all the way down”.

The same cannot be said of One Day Cricket.

Update: Just as i finished writing this, Dinesh Ramdin fell to a fine catch by Paul Collingwood of Liam Plunkett at the end of day three, to leave West Indies 7 down, still trailing by 190 with 2 days to play. One wicket, and they are looking very vulnerable. Chanderpaul will have to dig in and hopefully extend the West Indies effort as close to lunch time on day 4 as possible…. This is ODI cricket in reverse – he needs to play as many overs as he can…

Seeking balance amidst imbalance……

The playing eleven for India’s first test against Bangladesh raised many eyebrows – VVS Laxman and Yuvraj Singh were dropped, Dinesh Karthik opened the batting, five bowlers were picked, and to add to the misery, Munaf Patel joined Sreesanth on the sidelines. If you really think about it though, this is the best possible squad that India might have picked.

The Bangladesh series involves back t0 back Tests, and in this oppressive weather, it makes sense to play 5 bowlers to share the bowling. Playing three seam bowlers is always a good idea, because it gives the captain more options to play with. With Munaf and Sreesanth on the sidelines already it made sense to play the extra bowler.

Coming to the batting – one has to start off by accepting the ground reality that the best batsmen in India are middle order batsmen. Had it not been necessary to pick opening batsmen, or batsmen for the specific task of opening the batting, Wasim Jaffer might not have made the Indian squad. The six top batsmen in India right now are Dravid, Tendulkar, Ganguly, Yuvraj, Laxman and Sehwag. Of that there is little doubt, whatever their form at the international level suggests. Gambhir and co are not in the same class, and Jaffer is the best amongst that lot.

Dinesh Karthik queers the pitch a little bit. However he has been picked on potential and is being groomed as a specialist batsman. One of the things that is missed about selection is that it is individuals who are ultimately selected – not batting averages or batting techniques. The ones who get selected to play for India are as cricketers, a class above the average first class cricket – expert eyes can pick out something special, and the art of selection is about identifying someone special and then determining how best that talent can be roped in to contribute to the side. Dinesh Karthik is one such selection – he was a special cricketer, who unfortunately found himself competing and getting blown away by another exceptional talent – Dhoni, and then, instead of sulking, got cracking on improving his batting (which was promising enough to begin with – his hundred in a Ranji Final against Bombay and his 90 odd against Pakistan at Eden Gardens were memorable innings). The selectors have made a leap of faith and accepted that he be viewed as a batsman – and a possible Test opener at that. Tacit in this acceptance is the reality that India’s domestic cricket will never produce good quality opening batsmen because it is not designed to do so. The press and the public haven’t yet made that leap of faith. Rahul Dravid still has to clarify that Karthik has been picked as batsman, who can also keep if required.

All in all this is a good selection – given the inherent imbalance of the squad. There is definitely a glimpse of sanity in the selection of this playing eleven. A few questions are worth asking, and might be addressed in England -

1. If Dinesh Karthik can keep wicket, then would VVS or Yuvraj be better batting options than Dhoni?
2. Should Rahul Dravid bat at number 3 or should a more aggressive batsman (Yuvraj/VVS) take his place?
3. If Dinesh Karthik does the job as Test opener, should he also be asked to keep wickets?
4. Should India always go in with 5 bowlers?

and the last question – important because these are two special talents we are talking about -

What of Sehwag and Irfan Pathan?

India v Bangladesh May 10….. depleted victory…..

An Indian team selected by BCCI to please all constituencies, beat Bangladesh by 5 wickets, after playing 3 specialist fast bowlers is conditions which were always going to be spin friendly, with the two wicketkeepers selected in the eleven playing pivotal innings, one of them one one leg after having kept for 47 overs in the sapping heat. If that can some how be rationalized by saying “but they won in the end” and that they showed “determination and steel not evident in the world cup”, then such a rationalization would ignore the fact that every single one of India’ weaknesses was on display yesterday, and the win was not so much a case of India making fewer mistakes, but of Bangladesh making more mistakes and having limited firepower. Lets start at the beginning though.

Zaheer Khan started gingerly and inspite of Sreesanth bowling well, it seemed as though the rub of the green would continue to go Bangladesh’s way with catches flying between the wicketkeeper and first slip and Tamim Iqbal playing in effect an action replay of his Queens Park Oval innings at Mirpur. By my count, 1 short pitched delivery was attempted by Zaheer against the hard charging Tamin – that one went for 5 wides because it bounced too much. Zaheer was not at his best and kept drifting on the pads every now and then. The lap scoops which all the Bangladesh batsmen seem to execute proficiently seem to unsettle Zaheer. After that, Dravid seemed to play this match with one hand tied behind his back. The best spin bowling talent he could call on was Ramesh Powar, Dinesh Mongia and Virendra Sehwag! This on a turning track. The specialist spin bowling he had in the touring squad included Piyush Chawla!

It is with this background that this result ought to be viewed. It was an important result, because the “win, or else….. ” crowd with their sting operations and punitive diktats would have found occasion to take their derisive crescendo to a new level had the run chase been unsuccessful.

A word about Dhoni – he has now made 2000 runs at 46 – with 15 50+ scores in 62 innings (17 out of 62 innings have been unbeaten), the best beginning ever by any Indian ODI player – and he has been a specialist wicketkeeper all this while. In the process he has played some astonishing innings. He is a phenomenal talent, and more crucially, a phenomenal performer – one of the finest in the world. His method may work better in certain conditions than it does in other – but it might be useful to point out that he has out performed every other Indian batsman – Tendulkar, Dravid, Ganguly, Sehwag…. only Yuvraj sing with 2045 runs in 59 games at 45.5 comes close.

Dinesh Karthik delivered crucial runs as well. It is clear that he too like Dhoni is a special player. After a wicketkeeper drought between Mongia and Dinesh Karthik, India now have two candidates for the position who would walk into most Test sides in the World (Australia, SL and SA excepted of course).

The specialist batting seems to have learnt nothing. Gambhir, every time he gets selected promises much but his problem of falling over and planting his front foot too far across his stumps seems to persist. Sehwag was worse if anything. The run chase was well planned and India sought to make the most of the new ball and the power plays with the wicket holding up. One of the corollaries of the “openers should go after the new ball” theory is that the openers, once set, ought to stay in, because coming in against the older ball on a slow wicket is difficult given the prospect of a 5+ required run rate. Yet, Virendra Sehwag, with 171 ODI’ s under his belt, and only the captains good word on his side perished trying to manufacture a 5th boundary in an over which had already yielded 16. The man seems to have a death wish.

I can assure you though – the next time he makes one of his whirlwind 180’s – possibly in the Bangladesh Tests, possibly in England, everyone will applaud his style play. It gives you a glimpse as to how analysis is invariably backwards (and inherently dishonest). A victory means that only favorable evidence and events will be cherry picked and mentioned, while a defeat means that only unfavorable evidence and events will be cherry picked and mentioned. Sehwag walks a thin line between recklessness and outrageous confidence – but that line sadly is drawn by journalists. Even if his definition of an acceptable risk may be different from that of an average batsman, it must surely be required that when he seems to take his eye off the team goal, he ought to be brought to book. The difference between the ODI Sehwag and the Test Match Sehwag, is that the Test Match Sehwag is well within his comfort zone, while the ODI Sehwag has no rhythm to his play – beyond a certain point he seems to want to smash everything – that has never worked – even with Viv Richards or Ricky Ponting or Adam Gilchrist. There is a method to Sehwag’s Test Match play. There is apparently none that does not amount to harakiri in his ODI play.

All in all, this game revealed the gulf between the two sides – an India squad selected punitively which played terrible cricket for 80 out of 94 overs, and a Bangladesh squad missing its strike bowler which played to its potential with the bat, but had a mixed day in the field. Results like this can often kickstart the build up of momentum for a side. India needed a break. And they got it when Abdur Razzak fumbled a return from square leg with Dinesh Karthik short by about three bat lengths.

May be India will give a better account of themselves in the coming games. But today, they got out of jail.

Anti-Climax! – Is this the larger story of ODI cricket?

If the ICC had their way, we would be glued to our television sets right now, watching India take on Pakistan on the hallowed turf at Kensington Oval in Barbados in a critical Super 8’s clash. Instead, we find Bangladesh v Ireland, further – both teams are currently not in contention for the next stage of the tournament – Bangladesh could give themselves a chance in theory if they win today.

In many ways, this story is a microcosm of the larger World Cup story. Everything that could possibly have gone wrong has done so. It started with incomplete stadia – then came Pakistan’s ouster, then, shockingly came Bob Woolmer’s death. This was followed by India losing to Bangladesh and one surreal week later, losing to Sri Lanka. Tickets priced out of reach of the locals meant that the world, accustomed to stories of a cricket mad caribbean, saw empty stands despite the best efforts of TV producers.

On the field, the cricket has not been particularly exciting either. If you leave aside the England v Sri Lanka game, none of the other games very particularly close fought – the South Africa v Sri Lanka game had a 5 over spree at the end when Lasith Malinga threatened a freak come back. This inspite the fact that many of the games in this world cup have been in the mid to low scoring range, while others have seen 300+ scores. As contests, most games have been decided well before the the 75th over of the match. There is so much data to go by, that it is easy to tell at the end of the first innings whether a particular score is above or below par, or just about par. Therefore, much of the analysis tends to centre around whether or not a particular set of players under performed or performed out of their skins. Describing the cricket is optional.

In my view, we are in the age of ODI Cricket 4.0. There have been complaints from players that the World Cup as the tournament is too long. Indeed, the World Cup, which is supposed to be a celebration of ODI cricket, has revealed all the limitations of ODI Cricket – in its administration and more importantly, in relation to the nature of the contest.

Bowlers are outsiders in the contest and as better hitting techniques get engineered, bowlers tend to become more and more marginalized. In Test cricket, the contest is between bat and ball, and hence both batsmen and bowlers have equal opportunity to develop. Every couple of years, a new stroke is invented, and as each new stroke is invented, more batsmen in each team seem to have mastered the existing range of strokes. Little wonder then that Ricky Ponting should observe that it is the big strong giants like Pietersen and Hayden who are likely to rule batting in the near future – that the age of the pint sized master may be over.

Why are so many contests one sided? The only way an ODI contest can be a close contest is if the chasing side falls behind the clock in its chase and has a realistic chance of catching up. This is the only way that a closely contested game is possible in ODI cricket. Most ODI games where this doesn’t happen, are decided by a side batting first and racing away to an unattainable total, or suffering a batting collapse somewhere along the way and not scoring enough runs, or the side chasing collapsing and not being able to recover or having it easy in the chase. On decent wickets, a decent contest is extremely unlikely unless the score is between 260-280. This again…. if you think about it, makes for an extremely predictable contest. In addition, there is the problem that ODI games are often decided by the toss – one side starts its innings in bowler friendly conditions in the morning while the chasing team starts when the wicket has eased in the mid-afternoon.

ODI cricket is fine as a contest to determine who the better team is – but it is severely limited and overly simplistic and predictable as a cricketing contest, if your interest goes beyond determining who the better team is. The reason for this is obvious – bowlers are not really in the picture – not even on sporting wickets, because even there they tend to get wickets on the cheap because batsmen take risks against them which they would not normally take. ODI cricket belies the basic premise of cricket – that it is a contest between bat and ball.

Some months ago, i came up with this idea. Here is the gist of it with some modifications (i’ll try to limit this to just the gist ):

1. The total match shall consist of 100 overs.

2. The end of the innings will occur if the batting side gets bowled out, or if its captain declares. There will be no externally imposed stipulation of overs.

3. Any 3 bowlers will be allowed a maximum of 15 overs. The others will be allowed a maximum of 8.

4. A Win would be possible in the following way:

The side batting second, will have to match the runrate of the side batting first for the remainder of the overs. For example… if the side batting first makes 300/5 in 60 overs, then, in order to win, the side batting second will have to make 201 in the remaining 40 overs to win.

5. Teams will have the option of using either 2 new balls or 1 new ball and 1 old ball. (And old ball will be 20-30 overs old). For the first 10 overs these balls must be used alternatingly, while after that, the fielding side can choose whichever one it wishes for each over.

6. There will be no fielding restrictions apart from the basic restrictions which are : No more than 2 fielders behind square on the leg side, and at least 4 fielders inside the 30 yard ring.

7. Any game where 100 overs can not be completed will be deemed incomplete. Reserve days will be used to complete any unfinished games.

I encourage you to look through both ideas and i welcome any observations you may have……

Ireland have just finished at 243/7. I think this might just be Ireland’s day, especially if the Barbados pitch gives them some assistance.

The Run Rate equation for India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka

Correction: The result for todays game was by 198 runs and the game was of 96 overs duration and not onehundred. The calculations below take into consideration the 206 run result in 100 overs. I do not expect the numbers for Bangladesh to change a great deal.

Bangladesh got hammered by 206 runs today। As a result of this, the situation in group B is as follows:

If India beat Sri Lanka, India and Sri Lanka qualify. If Sri Lanka beats India and Bangladesh beat Bermuda, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh qualify. If Sri Lanka beats India and Bermuda beats Bangladesh, then India could still qualify (and probably will, because India will have a better run rate than Bangladesh).

I calculated the challenge that Bangladesh would face in terms of their run rates if India batted first and won by 1 run. If India score 150 and concede 149, their Net Run Rate (NRR) would end up at 1.68. If they make 325 and concede 324, their NRR would be 1.668. If they chase, this is the worst NRR they could end up with, because this considers that they used up 50 overs to make their runs. In such an event, given todays result, in order to have a run rate superior to Indias, Bangladesh would have to score atleast 250 runs and bowl Bermuda out for a grand total of 2 (yes team score 2) in order to surpass India’s NRR. If Bangladesh made 400, they would have to bowl Bermuda out for 53 or less in order to qualify.

So it basically boils down to the India – SL game – the run rates are pretty much irrelevant, thanks to Bangladesh getting hammered today. SL’s performance does put pressure on India – in so far as it indicates Sri Lanka’s form. But India have a 9-2 record in their last 11 games against SL, and must go in confident.

India have a chance to nullify the Bangladesh defeat and take away everything on offer in the group stage into the Super 8’s by beating Sri Lanka – qualification as well as points.

India are once again the sole masters of their own destiny

Cricketing View

India win by 257 runs – Interesting situation in Group B…..

The Indian batting line up came to play at Port Of Spain against Bermuda to rack up their first 400+ ODI score as India beat Bermuda by 257 runs – the largest run margin of victory in the history of ODI cricket. It should in all likelihood come down to India beating Sri Lanka now. The margin of victory should not matter to India, as Bangladesh would have to match India and Sri Lanka’s efforts against Bermuda to qualify if they don’t beat Sri Lanka. If they beat Sri Lanka, then the winner of the India- SL game wins anyways.

From that point of view, India will be mindful – that while they must obviously beat Sri Lanka, they mustn’t hurt the Sri Lankan run rate in doing so. India’s best case scenario is that India and Sri Lanka qualify and Bangladesh get eliminated – as then, India will have beaten Sri Lanka and taken the points over to the Super 8s. If India beat Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka beats Bangladesh and Bangladesh beat Bermuda, then qualification will come down to India and Sri Lanka – because Bangladesh will have to overcome both their margin of defeat against Sri Lanka as well as match India and SL’s result against Bermuda to catch up on net run rate.

So for Bangladesh to qualify, they have to beat Sri Lanka – if they lose to Sri Lanka, they will hope that India lose to Sri Lanka as well, in which case they only have to beat Bermuda to qualify.

If India lose to Sri Lanka, then the only way India can qualify is if the Bermudans beat Bangladesh – something they have never done before in a One Day International.

The run rate issue has been well handled by India today. Sehwag coming to form – he owes his batsman many more runs in this tournament. Dravid has stood by Sehwag with the same fortitude that he shows while batting in Test matches. Sehwag has to repay his faith, and he knows it. Tendulkar made 59 in 27 balls playing second fiddle to Yuvraj. Yuvraj looks unshakeable at the wicket more than any other player ive seen, he looks like hes in a zone when he’s batting – tremendous balance and awesome power.

Ganguly needs to work on rotating the strike – but his great strength is being able to pace his innings. He is the ideal foil to the belligerence of Sehwag and Uthappa. Agarkar hasn’t been convincing with the ball inspite of his three wickets, and bringing in Sreesanth for the must win contest might be a good idea. The real dilemma for Dravid will be the Kumble – Harbhajan question.

With 4 lefties in the SL top 6, he might be tempted to play Harbhajan Singh. Kumble hasn’t done too well against SL, who seem to have his measure more than any other side in the world. On balance, it seems Harbhajan Singh is the way to go.

The Bangladesh – Sri Lanka match on Wednesday will clarify Group B.

Its all down to Friday’s game now.

Cricketing View

Ambushed!!!……..

Rahul Dravid won the toss and walked wide eyed into a Bangla ambush to lose by 5 wickets in India’s World Cup opener at Queens Park Oval today. This ground, where India have beaten the West Indies thrice in Test cricket, became the venue for one of India’s worst World Cup performances. The early loss of Sehwag, Uthappa and Tendulkar set India back, and they never really recovered. Yuvraj and Ganguly led a recovery, but all their good work was undone by a spectacular collapse – losing 5 wickets for 2 runs in – a batting failure if their ever was one.

The Bangladesh batsmen played to potential with the 17 year old Tamim Iqbal providing the impetus with a rousing half century.

One may question Dravid’s moves in the field, but in the final analysis, they didn’t have the runs on the board. Like Vaughan against New Zealand, Dravid needed every single move he made to turn to gold if India were going to pull the chestnuts out of the fire. You could question the decision to bat first, especially given the advice of the groundsman that the side winning the toss should field. Dravid has however shown a tendency towards preferring to bat first – this is ironic, given the fact that India world record run chasing streak came under his helm. It is also probably a sign of the super aggressive streak that Dravid has – that of pushing things out of the comfort zone.

Dravid is going to cop it for backing Sehwag – and basically, he and Chappell are going to go thru hell, unless they can turn this around. As it happens, India are no longer the sole masters of their destiny (all though stretching the Bangladeshi run chase to the 49th over – the last 29 runs came for Bangladesh in 10 overs). All they can do now, is Win and Hope.

It will be interesting to see Dravid’s approach from here on…. its been a very poor day with sloppy catching, sloppy fielding, and very very poor batting. This Indian side needs to bat well if they want to win anything, because in terms of bowling and fielding, the resources are thin.

Heres an option….

Play Irfan and Uthappa as openers, push Ganguly, Dravid, Tendulkar and Yuvraj in the middle order and bring back the idea of promoting Dhoni (especially around over 18-20). The flexibility which worked so brilliantly in 2005-06 seems to have been but on the backburner along with the return of old personnel.

So much to do and so little time……. it is out of this kind of adversity that greatness emerges… India’s chance is now. They have to win the next two games that they are guaranteed in this world cup.

Cricketing View

Best Laid Plans….. A day for Cliche…..

As i write this, India have been bowled out for 191 by Bangladesh and Pakistan are 8/125 (with 26 runs in wides and no balls) against Ireland. Bangladesh – who beat New Zealand in their warm up have experience of playing top the top sides in the world, and should be favorites to win at this stage. Pakistan are in an even deeper hole – if they lose, they won’t make super six. All the ICC’s best laid plans for maximising revenue with their ingenuous scheduling will come to naught if India and Pakistan don’t make the super six. As Sunil Gavaskar likes pointing out – the game is a great leveller!

Much is already being said by way of analysis in the Indian innings. I read yesterday that the Port of Spain groundsman recommended fielding first on winning the toss. Much of the commentary is aimed at Virender Sehwag – the decision to open the batting with him. Dravid has chosen to back Sehwag, and Sehwag’s lack of success will reflect poorly not only on Sehwag (it could be potentially career ending), but on Rahul Dravid himself. The knives will be out, and the “i told you so’s” and “you failed!” crowd will swoop in. Whether in victory or in defeat, the monster of hype will have its fill.

There is much ground for disagreement with team strategy – however i have always been of the view, that to really support a team, you have to support it in failure as well as success. For example – my view of Ganguly (he made a painstakingly show 66 – which points to the wicket more than anything else) remains unchanged. He has prospered against the minnows in the last 4-5 years and struggled against the big guns.

All this reminds me of the Holland side – and of the Australian struggles early in the 1999 World Cup.

I just hope that this time around it can be completed without the oil and the black paint…

- An eternal optimist..

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